The Evolving Expectations of CFOs in Advertising
For years, Outdoor advertising was justified through trust. Advertisers and CFOs trusted that the locations were busy, the message was visible, and impressions were accurate. This worked in an era where metrics were scarce and assumptions were accepted. However, in today’s data-driven world, CFOs are no longer willing to accept guesswork. Digital transformation has brought about a new standard, where real-time data and performance tracking are the norm. Every investment must be justified with evidence. And, unfortunately, outdoor advertising hasn’t kept up with this evolution.
The result? A growing divide between how outdoor advertising is traditionally sold and how modern CFOs measure return on investment (ROI). This gap is driven by a mindset that’s still rooted in the “pray and spray” approach. In this model, advertisers buy space, display their message, and hope for the best.
This article explores why the “pray and spray” strategy is undermining ROI for outdoor advertising, why visibility claims and assumptions aren’t enough anymore, and how businesses can reshape their approach to measure true advertising success.
What is “Pray and Spray” and Why is It a Financial Risk?
The “pray and spray” approach is more than just a media-buying method; it’s a financial gamble. Here’s how it works: advertisers select a location based on their assumptions about foot traffic, place their ads for a set period, and then rely on estimated impressions and visibility assumptions to gauge success. After the campaign ends, advertisers infer results rather than verify them.
From a financial perspective, this creates three major problems:
- No Verifiable Delivery: There’s no concrete proof of when or how the ad was visible. There’s no way to track whether the ad was shown consistently or how exposure varied from day to day.
- Lack of Audit Trail: When leadership asks how impressions were calculated, they’re often met with vague estimates or historical averages, not hard data.
- No Optimization Loop: Since there’s no real-time data, campaign performance can’t be adjusted mid-flight. Advertisers are stuck with a fixed spend, regardless of how well the campaign is performing.
In short, “pray and spray” treats media investment as a sunk cost rather than a managed asset that can be optimized for maximum return.
Why Visibility Claims Fail Under Scrutiny
“High visibility” and “premium exposure” are phrases commonly used in the outdoor advertising world. While they sound reassuring, they don’t hold up in boardroom discussions where hard data is king.
CFOs want answers to tough questions like:
- Was the ad displayed every day?
- Was the message actually visible at the right time?
- What was the verified exposure?
- How does this compare to other marketing channels?
Visibility claims don’t provide the answers. They only suggest potential. They don’t tell CFOs exactly what happened during the campaign. When it comes to financial reporting, estimates and assumptions are no longer sufficient. For CFOs, data-driven decisions require certainty, and outdoor advertising that relies on estimates introduces unnecessary risks.
The Real Cost of Assumptions in Outdoor Advertising
The consequences of working with assumptions can be severe, especially when budgets are under pressure.
When CFOs can’t trace outcomes to verifiable evidence, marketing spend becomes vulnerable to cuts. It’s not that the channel didn’t work, but without the proof to justify the investment, it becomes difficult to defend outdoor advertising as a strategic, revenue-generating investment.
This is why the “pray and spray” approach erodes long-term ROI. Even if a campaign delivers value, the lack of proof makes it difficult to recognize, repeat, or scale that value. Over time, this weakens trust between finance and marketing, with outdoor advertising seen as an expense rather than an investment.
The Digital Transformation: How CFOs Now Expect Advertising to Be Measured
Digital advertising has set a new bar for accountability. In digital channels, performance is easily measurable. Campaigns are tracked with precision, with clear start and end times. Impressions are logged in real-time, and campaign results are visible immediately. For CFOs, this has become the expectation for all types of advertising.
The challenge for outdoor advertising is that it still operates with outdated reporting standards, which makes it difficult for CFOs to compare its performance against more modern, verifiable digital channels. The key to measuring outdoor advertising ROI today is adopting the same level of performance tracking and transparency that digital channels have pioneered.
The Key to Measuring ROI: Verification, Consistency, and Transparency
True ROI measurement requires three essential elements:
- Verification: Knowing that the campaign ran as planned, not assumed.
- Consistency: Understanding how exposure was delivered across different days and locations.
- Transparency: Providing access to data that finance teams can review, verify, and trust.
Without these elements, discussions about ROI remain theoretical. When these elements are in place, outdoor advertising can be measured in the same language as digital advertising, making it easier to justify and optimize.
Why Estimated Impressions Aren’t Enough Anymore
Estimated impressions were useful at a time when tracking was impossible. But today’s CFOs know the difference between modeled numbers and actual data. One is an assumption, and the other is evidence.
Most estimated impressions are based on traffic studies, population density, and assumed attention. They don’t account for real movement patterns, operational gaps, or ad downtime. For CFOs, assumptions in ROI calculations weaken confidence in the accuracy of results, even if the campaign has a real-world impact.
Moving From Exposure to Proof
The future of outdoor advertising is about proof, not louder claims.
With real-time tracking and verified performance data, campaigns can show exactly when they ran, where they appeared, and how exposure accumulated over time. This kind of data gives CFOs the clarity they need to confidently assess the value of the campaign, while marketing teams gain the credibility they need to justify their budget.
This shift from exposure to proof allows organizations to move from problem-aware to solution-aware. The problem isn’t outdoor advertising; it’s unverified outdoor advertising. The solution is bringing transparency, verification, and consistency into outdoor campaigns.
Bridging the Measurement Gap: New Systems for Accountability
New systems are emerging that combine physical visibility with digital accountability. These systems track campaign activity, record locations, and even provide visual confirmation through screenshots. By collecting real data rather than relying on assumptions, these systems help bring outdoor advertising in line with the same standards that digital advertising has set.
Minute Marketing is one example of a company bridging this gap by offering real-time reporting and tracking for outdoor campaigns. With live dashboard access, clients can see exactly where their ads appeared, how often they were viewed, and how much exposure they received, giving CFOs the tools they need to justify and optimize advertising spend.
Reframing How CFOs Should Measure Advertising ROI
To move forward, CFOs need to reframe the question. Instead of asking if outdoor advertising works, they should be asking if it can be properly measured. Instead of relying on estimated impressions, CFOs should demand verification. Instead of trusting visibility claims, they should ask for data on delivery and exposure.
This shift in mindset doesn’t eliminate outdoor advertising—it strengthens it. Channels that can prove value will survive budget scrutiny, while those that resist these new standards will continue to lose share.
Conclusion: The End of Guesswork in Outdoor Advertising
“Pray and spray” is killing outdoor advertising ROI because it relies on hope in a world that demands evidence. Today’s CFOs need more than assumptions and visibility claims—they need verifiable data, consistency, and transparency.
The future of outdoor advertising belongs to models that respect these principles. By providing proof of delivery, real-time tracking, and verified exposure, businesses can move beyond guesswork and toward accountable, measurable success.
If your organization is rethinking how outdoor advertising fits into a data-driven budget framework, ask yourself: Can this channel show proof, not promises? The answer will define your ROI.
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